Electric vehicles could increase net carbon emissions in India: IEA

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The has said there will be a net increase in due to when considering life-cycle emissions in countries, like India and China, which have a carbon-intensive power generation mix.

In its report on electric vehicle, says under the New Policies Scenario, India will reach an 11 per cent by 2030 (for all modes combined, excluding two- and three-wheelers where the share will be 70 per cent). Under the Scenario outlook, India’s electric mobility transition could develop a favourable policy environment and achieve a 25 per cent by 2030 across all modes, except two and three-wheelers where over 70 per cent of sales will be electric by the same year.

"This transition can be supported with the adoption of and ride-sharing systems, suggesting that the country to some extent may leapfrog from a low personal vehicle ownership rate to shared mobility while access to motorised road-based mobility is growing," says the report.

While New Policies Scenario factors in transport and already announced, as well as their implications for technology developments and related spillover effects, looking at all road transport modes, the second scenario of reflects a policy case characterised by a wider adoption of EVs, in line with the global campaign applied at a global scale.

Though electric two-wheelers are not currently a prime policy focus in most regions, they are projected to be a significant 39 per cent of the world two-wheelers (in terms of stock share) by 2030. “This high share primarily reflects China’s lead and continuing commitment to the electrification of two-wheelers, together with India’s stated ambition to electrify its two-wheelers (the two countries are the world’s largest two-wheeler markets),” says the report.

says the lack of consistency among visions and measures communicated at different times and by different actors suggests that India needs to ensure greater co-ordination in defining its electric vehicle policy as it moves forward. A Bloomberg report on Tuesday said India has pushed back a deadline to put thousands of battery-driven cars on the road by nearly a year. State-owned Energy Efficiency Services Ltd, that is running a programme to procure electric cars to replace the petrol and diesel vehicles used by government officials, will roll out the first 10,000 vehicles by March 2019. issued its first tender for 10,000 cars in September. It planned to roll out 500 cars by November and the rest by June.

“offer only limited advantages with respect to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in terms of WTW (well-to-wheel) CO2 emissions, and they may even result in net increases when considering life-cycle emissions in countries with a carbon-intensive power generation mix (e.g. India and China),” says the report. To ensure that have lower climate change impact than ICEs in countries with carbon-intensive power generation, it is of primary importance to reduce the CO2 intensity of power generation and to reduce the impact of the battery production and vehicle manufacturing phases.

Given the need to further develop an integrated policy framework supporting EVs, the projections in the New Policies Scenario consider a lower EV penetration rate for India than in other major world regions.

In the New Policies Scenario, the demand for annual battery capacity added to is expected to grow by a factor of 15, from around 68 GWh in 2017 to 775 GWh in 2030. China is expected to retain its leadership in global demand and contribute to half of the global battery capacity demand, followed by Europe (18%), India (12%) and the United States (7%).

The electricity consumption from EVs increases significantly in India, which by 2030 accounts for 7 per cent of total electricity consumed by EVs worldwide. In China, the country characterised by the highest EV stock share, the total electricity draw from EVs in 2030 is five-times larger than today’s power consumption from EVs.

“China, Europe, Japan, United States and recently India have spurred EV consumer demand through a combination of instruments including public procurement and investment plans, subsidies and other financial incentives addressing both EV purchase prices and refuelling/charging infrastructure, fuel-economy standards and other measures, in particular including (ZEV) mandates,” the report notes.